Climatic trends to extremes employing regional modeling and statistical interpretation over the E. Mediterranean

Results of regional climate modeling performed at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, are analyzed for the E. Mediterranean region. It is found that the average temperature over the Mediterranean area has increased by 1.5-4 degrees C in the last 100 yr. The temperature in the years 2071-2100 according to the A2 and B2 scenarios are predicted to increase by about 4 degrees C and 6 degrees C respectively over Northern Israel in comparison with the control run for 1961-1990. The precipitation above most of the Mediterranean shows a dominant negative trend in the last 50 yr. A large negative trend in the A2 scenario is found over Northern Israel, while B2 scenario shows no significant trend. There is a tendency toward extreme events. It is found that the extreme precipitation over Northern Israel shows significant increasing trends for the A2 and B2 scenarios with respect to the present climate. Also, the standard deviation of the average annual precipitation is higher in the A2 and B2 scenarios showing a trend toward both drier as well as wetter years in the future. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.