EXPLICIT SIMULATION ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WINNIE (1997)

An explicit simulation of the tropical cyclone Winnie (1997) was conducted by use of a triply-nested 3-D nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5, before and after its landfall. The simulated results show that the model can well reproduce the track of Winnie (1997) with a BOGUS storm-like vortex inserted in the large-scale first-guess field at the initial model time. The mean track error in a 6 h interval is 54.5 km, which is much less than that obtained with the operational prediction. Comparisons between simulation and observation near the landfall place show that the main temporal variation features of sea level pressure and surface wind speed can also be successfully captured. The characteristics of the eyewall, the spiral cloud band and the corresponding precipitation were disclosed, and the applications of the model outputs were also discussed.