Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

被引:1468
作者
Burke, Marshall [1 ,2 ]
Hsiang, Solomon M. [3 ,4 ]
Miguel, Edward [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[2] Stanford Univ, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[3] Univ Calif Berkeley, Goldman Sch Publ Policy, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
[4] Univ Calif Berkeley, Natl Bur Econ Res, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
[5] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
关键词
MODELS;
D O I
10.1038/nature15725
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];
摘要
Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies(1,2), but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries(3,4). In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature(5), while poor countries respond only linearly(5,6). Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems(7,8) and to anticipating the global impact of climate change(9,10). Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 degrees C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change(11,12), with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.
引用
收藏
页码:235 / +
页数:16
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