Regional seismic hazard study for the eastern Mediterranean (Trans-Jordan, Levant and Antakia) and Sinai region

The aim of this study is to assess the seismic hazard in the eastern Mediterranean and Sinai region using a probabilistic approach. An updated earthquake catalogue for the period 1 to 1993 AD that covers the area between latitude 27 degrees-37 degrees N and longitude 32 degrees-39 degrees E, has been used. Using the new seismic-tectonic map for the area, 10 line-sources are delineated. These lines or fault zones are thought to represent the main sources for the seismic potential in the area. The results are demonstrated as iso-contour lines of the peak-ground acceleration. The iso-acceleration contours represent 90% probability that these peak values will not be exceeded over periods of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively. This study concludes that the seismic hazard severity is highest along the Jordan Dead Sea transform fault system, namely from south of the Gulf of Aqaba, Dead Sea-Jordan River, Tiberia Lake, Rachaya, Ed Damur, Yammuneh Fault, and Ghab Fault in the north. For the 50 year iso-contour map, the major cities of Amman, Damascus, and Beirut lay around the 2 m s(-2) contour line, while Jerusalem lies along the 3 m s(-2) line. Antakia in Turkey has the highest seismic potential severity (around 5 m s(-2)) while in Cyprus the maximum hazard is expected to reach 4 m s(-2) for the coming 50 years. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Limited. Ail rights reserved.