Roads to prosperity? Assessing the link between public capital and productivity

被引:427
作者
Fernald, JG [1 ]
机构
[1] Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1257/aer.89.3.619
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Does the positive correlation between infrastructure and productivity reflect causation? If so, in which direction? I find that when growth in roads (the largest component of infrastructure) changes, productivity growth changes disproportionately in U.S. industries with more vehicles. That vehicle-intensive industries benefit more from road-building suggests that roads are productive. At the margin, however, road investments do not appear unusually productive, Intuitively, the interstate system was highly productive, but a second one would not be. Road-building thus explains much of the productivity slowdown through a one-time, unrepeatable productivity boost in the 1950's and 1960's, (JEL E62, O47, R53).
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页码:619 / 638
页数:20
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