PAYG PENSIONS AND HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: SOME UNPLEASANT ARITHMETIC

A large literature has studied the effects of Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) systems on fertility, human capital and growth. We argue that the social security system may also interact with longevity when the latter is endogenously determined. We show that in such an environment, in a dynamically efficient economy PAYG pensions must be sufficiently low in order to ensure positive economic growth. Moreover, a transition to a funded social security system will promote growth, and can thereby take place by fully compensating the losers.