The Natural History and Predictive Features of Hemorrhage From Brain Arteriovenous Malformations

Background and Purpose-Patients harboring brain arteriovenous malformations (bAVMs) are at a lifelong risk for hemorrhagic strokes, but the natural history is poorly understood. We examined the impact of demographic and angiographic features on the likelihood of future hemorrhage. Methods-A prospectively accrued database of bAVM patients maintained at the Toronto Western Hospital was analyzed; 678 consecutive, prospectively enrolled bAVM patients were followed for 1931.7 patient-years. The rate of hemorrhage over long-term follow-up was recorded. The impact of baseline clinical and radiographic features and partial treatment on time to hemorrhage were analyzed using survival analysis. Neurological outcome after hemorrhage was assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Score. Results-Hemorrhage rates were 4.61% per year for the entire cohort (n=678), 7.48% per year for bAVMs with initial hemorrhagic presentation (n=258), 4.16% per year for initial seizure presentation (n=260), 3.99% per year for patients not harboring aneurysms (n=556), 6.93% per year for patients with associated aneurysms (n=122), and 5.42% per year for bAVMs with deep venous drainage (n=365). Hemorrhagic presentation was a significant independent predictor of future hemorrhage (HR, 2.15; P<0.01), whereas associated aneurysms (HR, 1.59; P=0.07) and deep venous drainage (HR, 1.59; P=0.07) showed a trend toward significance. Hemorrhage risk was unchanged in patients who underwent partial arteriovenous malformation embolization (n=211; HR, 0.875; P=0.32). Conclusion-Brain arteriovenous malformations presenting with hemorrhage, with deep venous drainage, or associated aneurysms have approximate to 2-fold greater likelihood of a future hemorrhage. Partial treatment by embolization does not alter these risks. This natural history should be taken into account in the treatment strategy. (Stroke. 2009;40:100-105.)