On summing the components of radiative forcing of climate change

被引：71

作者：

Boucher, O

Haywood, J

机构：

[1] Univ Sci & Technol Lille, UFR Phys, Opt Atmospher Lab, F-59655 Villeneuve Dascq, France

[2] Meteorol Off, Bracknell RB12 2SZ, Berks, England

来源：

CLIMATE DYNAMICS | 2001年 / 18卷 / 3-4期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1007/s003820100185

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Radiative forcing is a useful concept in determining the potential influence of a particular mechanism of climate change. However, due to the increased number of forcing agents identified over the past decade, the total radiative forcing is difficult to assess. By assigning a range of probability distribution functions to the individual radiative forcings and using a Monte-Carlo approach, we estimate the total radiative forcing since pre-industrial times including all quantitative radiative forcing estimates to date. The resulting total radiative forcing has a 75-97% probability of being positive (or similarly a 3-25% probability of being negative), with mean radiative forcing ranging from + 0.68 to + 1.34 W m(-2), and median radiative forcing ranging from + 0.94 to + 1.39 W m(-2).

引用

页码：297 / 302

页数：6

共 26 条

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