Prediction of 6 months left ventricular dilatation after myocardial infarction in relation to cardiac morbidity and mortality - Application of a new dilatation model to GISSI-3 data

Aims To predict the long-term left ventricular volume index early after myocardial infarction and to investigate the relationship between long-term left ventricular dilatation risk and clinical outcome. Methods and Results By applying a previously developed dilatation model, we predicted the 6-month left ventricular volume index early after myocardial infarction (median 9 days) in 13 679 GISSI-3 patients, to identify patients at high risk of long-term left ventricular dilatation. The left ventricular systolic and diastolic volume indexes at 6 months were predicted with r=0.72 and r=0.68. respectively. in the subgroup of patients in whom a pre-discharge echo was available (n=7842). Patients predicted to be at risk for long-term left ventricular dilatation had an increased risk of mortality (R.R. 1.87. 95% CI: 1.48 to 2.36) and heart failure at 6 months (RR 2.59, 95% CI:2.04 to 3.28), but no increased risk of reinfarction at 6 months (RR 1.12, 95% CI: 0.87 to 1.45) or of angina pectoris (RR 1.07, 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.20). Conclusion Our prediction of long-term left ventricular dilatation, obtained by applying our new dilatation model in over 13 000 GISSI-3 patients, correlated well with mortality and heart failure after myocardial infarction, Therefore, our new dilatation model may contribute to more efficient risk stratification early after myocardial infarction. (C) 2001 The European Society of Cardiology.