Statistical analysis and combination forecasting of environmental efficiency and its influential factors since China entered the WTO: 2002-2010-2012

Since China became a member of World Trade Organization (WTO), its economy develops at a fast speed. At the same time, the environmental problem becomes more and more serious and increasingly affects economic development. Studying the factors that influence environmental efficiency has become an essential point in dealing with the relationship between economy and environment. Considering the differences in space and economic development among different districts, this paper discusses the quantitative relationship among exports figure, imports figure, GDP per capita, industrialization level, fiscal decentralization and environmental efficiency of each Chinese province by using statistical analysis. Furthermore, this paper discusses differences among each district's influential factors from the perspective of Spatial Economics and makes combination forecast on the trend of environmental efficiency. It also shows that the environmental efficiency of Chinese provinces is generally at a low level. In addition, as the economic statuses of different provinces vary and the factors that influence environmental efficiency in different provinces also have significant differences, each province should take certain measures to design the environmental protection policy in line with its local circumstance. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.