A toolkit to assess fiscal vulnerabilities and risks in advanced economies

被引：2

作者：

Schaechter, Andrea ^{[1
]}

Alper, C. Emre ^{[1
]}

Arbatli, Elif ^{[1
]}

Caceres, Carlos ^{[1
]}

Callegari, Giovanni ^{[2
]}

Gerard, Marc ^{[1
]}

Jonas, Jiri ^{[1
]}

Kinda, Tidiane ^{[1
]}

Shabunina, Anna ^{[1
]}

Weber, Anke ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA

[2] European Cent Bank, Frankfurt, Germany

来源：

APPLIED ECONOMICS | 2014年 / 46卷 / 06期

关键词：

fiscal vulnerabilities; fiscal risk; fiscal indicators; sustainability;

D O I：

10.1080/00036846.2013.861589

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This article presents a range of tools and indicators for analysing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.

引用

页码：650 / 660

页数：11