Migration distance and the effect of North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival of birds in Central Europe

Mean annual first arrival dates (FAD) of 45 migratory bird species recorded in Moravia (Czech Republic. c. 49 degrees N) in 109 spring seasons between 1881 and 2007 were correlated with the preceding winter (December to March) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The arrival of birds occurred significantly earlier following high NAO winter index values (those result in spring warmer than normal in central Europe) in all short-distance migratory species with a European or North African winter range, whereas the arrival timing did not correlate significantly with the seasonal NAO index in long-distance migrants having sub-Saharan winter range. When the values of Pearson coefficient between NAO and FAD were correlated with the migration distance of all 45 bird species. the correlation was remarkable and significant (p<0.001): r = 0.848 for the distance to central locations of winter range, and r = 0.822 for the northern limits of the wintering area. The migration distance was thus responsible for 68-72% of variation in the regression of birds arrival on NAO winter index in central Europe. The data are robust (this is the longest avian phenological record analyzed for correlation with NAO in Europe), and indicate different mechanisms that govern timing between short-distance and long-distance migrants in their departure from wintering areas.