Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

被引：230

作者：

Rohling, E. J. ^{[1
,2
]}

Sluijs, A. ^{[3
]}

Dijkstra, H. A. ^{[4
]}

Koehler, P. ^{[5
]}

de Wal, R. S. W. van ^{[4
]}

von der Heydt, A. S. ^{[4
]}

Beerling, D. J. ^{[6
]}

Berger, A. ^{[7
]}

Bijl, P. K. ^{[3
]}

Crucifix, M. ^{[7
]}

DeConto, R. ^{[8
]}

Drijfhout, S. S. ^{[9
]}

Fedorov, A. ^{[10
]}

Foster, G. L. ^{[1
]}

Ganopolski, A. ^{[11
]}

Hansen, J. ^{[12
]}

Hoenisch, B. ^{[13
]}

Hooghiemstra, H. ^{[14
]}

Huber, M. ^{[15
]}

Huybers, P. ^{[16
]}

Knutti, R. ^{[17
]}

Lea, D. W. ^{[18
]}

Lourens, L. J. ^{[3
]}

Lunt, D. ^{[19
]}

Masson-Demotte, V. ^{[20
]}

Medina-Elizalde, M. ^{[21
]}

Otto-Bliesner, B. ^{[22
]}

Pagani, M.

Paelike, H. ^{[23
]}

Renssen, H. ^{[24
]}

Royer, D. L. ^{[25
]}

Siddall, M. ^{[26
]}

Valdes, P. ^{[19
]}

Zachos, J. C.

Zeebe, R. E. ^{[27
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Southampton, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci, Natl Oceanog Ctr, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England

[2] Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia

[3] Univ Utrecht, Dept Earth Sci, Fac Geosci, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, Netherlands

[4] Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res Utrecht, NL-3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands

[5] Alfred Wegener Inst Polar & Marine Res AWI, D-27515 Bremerhaven, Germany

[6] Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England

[7] Catholic Univ Louvain, Georges Lemaitre Ctr Earth & Climate Res, Earth & Life Inst, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium

[8] Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Morrill Sci Ctr 233, Amherst, MA 01003 USA

[9] Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands

[10] Yale Univ, Dept Geol & Geophys, New Haven, CT 06520 USA

[11] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

[12] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA

[13] Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA

[14] Univ Amsterdam, Inst Biodivers & Ecosyst Dynam, NL-1098 XH Amsterdam, Netherlands

[15] Purdue Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA

[16] Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[17] ETH, Inst Atmospher andClimate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[18] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Earth Sci, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[19] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England

[20] LCEA Saclay, LSCE IPSL CEA CNRS UVSQ, UMR 8212, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

[21] Ctr Invest Cient Yucatan, Unidad Ciencias Agua, Cancun 77500, Quintana Roo, Mexico

[22] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[23] Univ Bremen, MARUM, D-28359 Bremen, Germany

[24] Free Univ Amsterdam, Dept Earth Sci, Fac Earth & Life Sci, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands

[25] Wesleyan Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Middletown, CT 06459 USA

[26] Univ Bristol, Dept Earth Sci, Bristol BS8 1RJ, Avon, England

[27] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Oceanog, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

来源：

NATURE | 2012年 / 491卷 / 7426期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会; 欧洲研究理事会; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

CARBON-DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION; GLOBAL CLIMATE SENSITIVITY; EOCENE ATMOSPHERIC CO2; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; ANTARCTIC TEMPERATURE; EARTHS TEMPERATURE; GEOLOGICAL RECORD; SEA-LEVEL; FUTURE; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1038/nature11574

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];

摘要：

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climatechange. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in KW-1 m(2)) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

引用

页码：683 / 691

页数：9

共 101 条

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