Regional land use and employment impacts of bovine spongiform encephalopathy slaughter policy measures in England

The paper explores the likely national, regional and industry level impacts of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) Florence Agreement control measures on agricultural land use and employment in England by the year 2000. Three different modelling approaches were combined, involving a dynamic spreadsheet model of UK milk and beef supply, a linear programming-based model of land use and an employment model based on input-output and employment relationships within the economy. This modelling exercise found that, by 2000, the impact of the BSE crisis and the culling policy will have resulted in relatively small reductions in the output of beef and milk compared to pre-crisis (1995) levels alongside partially compensating increases in the outputs of sheep, pigs and poultry. However, this masks significant likely regional variation. The knock-on effects on employment may also be substantial. The findings highlight the key importance of improving the future demand for UK-produced beef and lifting the world-wide ban on beef exports from the UK. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.