A method to determine the mean pollen dispersal of individual plants growing within a large pollen source

Pollen dispersal has been recently focused on as a major issue in the risk assessment of transgenic crop plants. The shape of the pollen dispersal of individual plants is hard to determine since a very large number of plants must be monitored in order to track rare long-distance dispersal events. Conversely, studies using large plots as a pollen source provide a pollen distribution that depends on the shape of the source plot. We report here on a method based on the use of Fourier transforms by which the pollen dispersal of a single, average individual can be obtained from data using large plots as pollen sources, thus allowing the estimation of the probability of long-distance dispersal for single plants. This method is subsequently implemented on simulated data to test its susceptibility to random noise and edge effects. Its conditions of application and value for use in ecological studies, in particular risk assessment of the deliberate release of transgenic plants, are discussed.