Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks

The sensitivity of global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms of the global climate feedbackthe global radiative response per degree of global annual mean surface temperature change. While the global climate feedback is often assumed to be constant, its valuediagnosed from global climate modelsshows substantial time variation under transient warming. Here a reformulation of the global climate feedback in terms of its contributions from regional climate feedbacks is proposed, providing a clear physical insight into this behavior. Using (i) a state-of-the-art global climate model and (ii) a low-order energy balance model, it is shown that the global climate feedback is fundamentally linked to the geographic pattern of regional climate feedbacks and the geographic pattern of surface warming at any given time. Time variation of the global climate feedback arises naturally when the pattern of surface warming evolves, actuating feedbacks of different strengths in different regions. This result has substantial implications for the ability to constrain future climate changes from observations of past and present climate states. The regional climate feedbacks formulation also reveals fundamental biases in a widely used method for diagnosing climate sensitivity, feedbacks, and radiative forcingthe regression of the global top-of-atmosphere radiation flux on global surface temperature. Further, it suggests a clear mechanism for the efficacies of both ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing.