Effects of transient climate change on basin hydrology. 2. Impacts on runoff variability in the Arno River, central Italy

Potential climate change is expected to produce substantial effects on the hydrological cycle. In a companion paper (Burlando P, Rosso R. Hydrological Processes this issue) the effects on precipitation have been discussed, with particular attention being given to significant changes in storm characteristics, distributional and extremal properties. As a consequence, major changes in runoff and rainfall-driven processes could occur, The analysis of such changes is discussed in this paper, focusing on the Arno River basin, central Italy, which can be representative of climatic environments of southern Europe. The effects of transient scenarios are simulated by a model that explicitly describes the processes involved in the rainfall-runoff transformation. Changes in the most significant components of the water balance are discussed with respect to seasonality, distributional properties and extremes. Finally, mention is also given to some potential implications on water resources. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.