Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment

被引：92

作者：

Borrego, C. ^{[1
]}

Monteiro, A. ^{[1
]}

Ferreira, J. ^{[1
]}

Miranda, A. I. ^{[1
]}

Costa, A. M. ^{[1
]}

Carvalho, A. C. ^{[1
]}

Lopes, M. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Aveiro, Dept Ambiente & Ordenamento, CESAM, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal

来源：

ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL | 2008年 / 34卷 / 05期

关键词：

air quality; modelling; uncertainty; quality indicators;

D O I：

10.1016/j.envint.2007.12.005

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The main objectives of this work focus, firstly, on a review of the current existent methodologies to estimate air quality modelling uncertainty, and, secondly, in the preparation of guidelines for modelling uncertainty estimation, which can be used by local and regional authorities responsible for air quality management. From the application exercise, it was concluded that it is possible to define a subset of statistical parameters able to reproduce the general uncertainties estimation. Concerning the quality indicators defined by EU directives, the results show that the legislated uncertainty estimation measures are ambiguous and inadequate in several aspects, mainly in what concerns the error measures for hourly and daily indicators based on the highest observed concentration. A relative error at the percentile correspondent to the allowed number of exceedances of the limit value was suggested and tested, showing that is a more robust and appropriate parameter for model performance evaluation. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：613 / 620

页数：8

共 42 条

[1]

Ang AS., 1984, Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol. II. Decision, Risk

[2]

[Anonymous], 1990, GUIDE DEALING UNCERT

[3] Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of a regional-scale transport chemistry model constrained by measurements from the Atmospheric Pollution Over the Paris Area (ESQUIF) campaign [J].

Beekmann, M ;

Derognat, C .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2003, 108 (D17)

[4] Emission and dispersion modelling of Lisbon air quality at local scale [J].

Borrego, C ;

Tchepel, O ;

Costa, AM ;

Amorim, JH ;

Miranda, AI .

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, 2003, 37 (37) :5197-5205

[5]

BORREGO C, 2006, AMBQA122006 U AV

[6] Sensitivity analysis for atmospheric chemistry models via automatic differentiation [J].

Carmichael, GR ;

Sandu, A ;

Potra, FA .

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, 1997, 31 (03) :475-489

[7] Air quality model performance evaluation [J].

Chang, JC ;

Hanna, SR .

METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, 2004, 87 (1-3) :167-196

[8] Ozone ensemble forecasts: 1. A new ensemble design [J].

Delle Monache, L ;

Deng, XX ;

Zhou, YM ;

Stull, R .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2006, 111 (D5)

[9] A sensitivity analysis study for RADM2 mechanism using automatic differentiation [J].

Djouad, R ;

Audiffren, N ;

Sportisse, B .

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, 2003, 37 (22) :3029-3038

[10] Ozone episode analysis by four-dimensional variational chemistry data assimilation [J].

Elbern, H ;

Schmidt, H .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2001, 106 (D4) :3569-3590

← 1 2 3 4 5 →