Predictability associated with the downstream impacts of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Methodology and a case study of Typhoon Nabi (2005)

Measures of the variability among ensemble members from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction ensemble prediction system are examined with respect to forecasts of the extratropical transition (ET) of Typhoon Nabi over the western North Pacific during September 2005. In this study, variability among ensemble members is used as a proxy for predictability. The time - longitude distribution of standard deviations among 500-hPa height fields from the ensemble members is found to increase across the North Pacific following the completion of the extratropical transition. Furthermore, the increase in ensemble standard deviation is organized such that an increase is associated with the extratropical transition and another increase extends downstream from the ET event. The organization and amplitude of the standard deviations increase from 144 h until approximately 72 - 48 h prior to the completion of the extratropical transition, and then decrease as the forecast interval decreases. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause is applied to ensemble members to identify the spatial and temporal organization of centers of variability related to the extratropical transition. The principal components are then used in a fuzzy cluster analysis to examine the grouping of forecast sequences in the collection of ensemble members. The number of forecast groups decreases as the forecast interval to the completion of the ET decreases. However, there is a systematic progression of centers of variability downstream of the ET event. Once the variability associated with the ET begins to decrease, the variability downstream of the ET event also begins to decrease.