Time trends in suicide mortality in Lithuania

Objective: The aim of this study was to analyse the time trends of suicides during the period 1970-1995 in Lithuania, and to assess the importance of the effects of age, period and birth cohort as risk factors. Method: Trends in suicides and average annual changes were based on logarithmic regression analysis. For assessment of the effects of age, period and birth cohort on suicide mortality, a log-linear regression model with parameters representing age, period and cohort effects was fitted. Results: Between 1970 and 1995 age-standardized suicide rates almost doubled. There was an increase in suicides in birth cohorts of males from 1910 to 1950, and in cohorts born after 1965. In females, an increase was observed in all successive birth years from 1905 to 1925 and after 1970. The period effect in males and the cohort effect in females were dominant. Conclusion: It is unlikely that suicide rates will decrease in the near future.