Evaluating a model of the historical behavior of two hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Baltic sea environment

The POPCYCLING-Baltic model, a non-steady-state multicompartmental mass balance model of long-term chemical fate in the Baltic Sea environment, is evaluated for its capability to simulate the behavior of alpha- and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane isomers from 1970 to 2000. The model predicts HCH concentrations in air, seawater, marine sediments, and needles well within an order of magnitude, often within a factor of 2, and reproduces major features of the observed differences in space and time. The spatial and temporal patterns of HCHs in the Baltic Sea environment are found to be controlled mostly by chemical input, both through direct emissions within the drainage basin and through advective inflow from adjacent areas, but variable environmental conditions can significantly modify the spatial distribution patterns. Simulations with different boundary conditions, i.e., variable assumptions concerning advective atmospheric inflow, suggest that sources within the drainage basin alone are not capable of explaining the observed HCH levels and that significant transport into the region must occur, Deviations between predicted and measured HCH concentrations can often be explained by uncertain estimates of usage and advective import, illustrating the usefulness of the model for evaluating the reasonability of emission estimates and boundary conditions.