Past and Future Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Based on Modeling of Population-Based Data

被引：379

作者：

Coward, Stephanie ^{[1
,2
]}

Clement, Fiona ^{[2
]}

Benchimol, Eric I. ^{[1
,3
,4
,5
,6
]}

Bernstein, Charles N. ^{[1
,7
]}

Avina-Zubieta, J. Antonio ^{[8
]}

Bitton, Alain ^{[1
,9
]}

Carroll, Mathew W. ^{[1
,10
]}

Hazlewood, Glen ^{[2
]}

Jacobson, Kevan ^{[1
,11
]}

Jelinski, Susan ^{[10
,12
]}

Deardon, Rob ^{[2
]}

Jones, Jennifer L. ^{[1
,13
]}

Kuenzig, M. Ellen ^{[1
,3
,4
,5
,6
]}

Leddin, Desmond ^{[1
,14
]}

McBrien, Kerry A. ^{[2
]}

Murthy, Sanjay K. ^{[1
,5
,6
,15
,16
]}

Nguyen, Geoffrey C. ^{[1
,6
,17
,18
]}

Otley, Anthony R. ^{[1
,13
]}

Panaccione, Remo ^{[2
]}

Rezaie, Ali ^{[19
]}

Rosenfeld, Greg ^{[1
,8
]}

Pena-Sanchez, Juan Nicolas ^{[1
,20
]}

Singh, Harminder ^{[1
,7
]}

Targownik, Laura E. ^{[1
,7
]}

Kaplan, Gilaad G. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Canadian Gastrointestinal Epidemiol Consortium, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[2] Univ Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada

[3] Childrens Hosp Eastern Ontario, IBD Ctr, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[4] Childrens Hosp Eastern Ontario, CHEO Res Inst, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[5] Univ Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[6] ICES, Toronto, ON, Canada

[7] Univ Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada

[8] Univ British Columbia, Arthrit Res Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[9] McGill Univ, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[10] Univ Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada

[11] Univ British Columbia, British Columbia Childrens Hosp, BC Childrens Hosp Res Inst, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[12] Alberta Hlth Serv, Edmonton, AB, Canada

[13] Dalhousie Univ, Halifax, NS, Canada

[14] Univ Limerick, Limerick, Ireland

[15] Ottawa Hosp Res Inst, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[16] IBD Ctr, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[17] Mt Sinai Hosp, Toronto, ON, Canada

[18] Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

[19] Cedars Sinai Med Ctr, Los Angeles, CA 90048 USA

[20] Univ Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada

来源：

GASTROENTEROLOGY | 2019年 / 156卷 / 05期

关键词：

Crohn Disease; Ulcerative Colitis; Epidemiology; Forecast Modeling; ULCERATIVE-COLITIS; CROHNS-DISEASE; ADMINISTRATIVE DATA; OLMSTED COUNTY; EPIDEMIOLOGY; PREVALENCE; CANADA; CARE; IBD; ASSOCIATION;

D O I：

10.1053/j.gastro.2019.01.002

中图分类号：

R57 [消化系及腹部疾病];

学科分类号：

100201 [内科学];

摘要：

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) exist worldwide, with high prevalence in North America. IBD is complex and costly, and its increasing prevalence places a greater stress on health care systems. We aimed to determine the past current, and future prevalences of IBD in Canada. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from Alberta (2002-2015), British Columbia (1997-2014), Manitoba (1990-2013), Nova Scotia (1996-2009), Ontario (1999-2014), Quebec (2001-2008), and Saskatchewan (1998-2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% confidence intervals, was assessed with log binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada was estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) and annual average percent change was estimated at 2.86% (95% confidence interval 2.80%-2.92%). The prevalence in 2030 was forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI 963-999): 159 per 100,000 (95% PI 133-185) in children, 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI 1069-1168) in adults, and 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI 1312-1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 Canadians (95% PI 264,579-271,387) were estimated to be living with IBD, which was forecasted to increase to 402,853 (95% PI 395,466-410,240) by 2030. CONCLUSION: Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high-quality and cost-effective care.

引用

页码：1345 / +

页数：13

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