The NAIRU, unemployment and monetary policy

被引：219

作者：

Staiger, D

Stock, JH

Watson, MW

机构：

[1] PRINCETON UNIV, WOODROW WILSON SCH, PRINCETON, NJ 08544 USA

[2] NATL BUR ECON RES, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES | 1997年 / 11卷 / 01期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1257/jep.11.1.33

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper examines the precision of conventional estimates of the NAIRU and the role of the NAIRU and unemployment in forecasting inflation. The authors find that, although there is a clear empirical Phillips relation, the NAIRU is imprecisely estimated, forecasts of inflation are insensitive to the NAIRU, and there are other leading indicators of inflation that are at least as good as unemployment. This suggests deemphasizing the NAIRU in public discourse about monetary policy and instead drawing on a richer variety of leading indicators of inflation.

引用

页码：33 / 49

页数：17