Historical changes and life course variation in the determinants of premarital childbearing

Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for a sample of 2,794 women observed between 1968 and 1993 are used to examine whether the impact of established sociodemographic determinants of the risk of a first premarital birth has changed over time or varies by age. Event history analyses reveal that the risk afa premarital birth is greater for Black women and Latinas than far White women and non-Latinas, that it declines with the socioeconomic status of the family of origin, is greater or women growing lip in a mother-only family, increases with neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage, and is higher in metropolitan areas and in areas outside the South. Over time, the racial difference in the risk of a first premarital birth has declined, a trend that cannot be attributed to changing racial differentials in family background characteristics or geographic location. In contrast, the difference in premarital childbearing risks between Latinas and non-Latinas has widened. The inverse impact of childhood family income an: women's risk of a premarital birth weakens significantly as women age.