From GCMs to river flow: a review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modelling approaches

The scientific literature of the past decade contains a large number of reports detailing the development of downscaling methods and the use of hydrologic models to assess the potential effects of climate change on a variety of water resource issues. This article reviews the current state of methodologies for simulating hydrological responses to global climate change. Emphasis is given to recent advances in climatic downscaling and the problems related to the practical application of appropriate models in impact studies. Following a discussion of the advantages and deficiencies of the various approaches, challenges for the future study of the hydrological impacts of climate change are identified.