Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling

被引:818
作者
Araujo, Miguel B. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Townsend Peterson, A. [4 ]
机构
[1] CSIC, Natl Museum Nat Sci, Dept Biodivers & Evolutionary Biol, Madrid 28006, Spain
[2] Univ Evora, Rui Nabeiro Biodivers Chair, CIBIO, P-7000 Evora, Portugal
[3] Univ Copenhagen, Dept Biol, Ctr Macroecol Evolut & Climate, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
[4] Univ Kansas, Biodivers Inst, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA
关键词
biodiversity; biogeography; climate change; climate envelopes; conservation planning; ecological niches; invasions; niche conservation; restoration ecology; species distributions; translocation experiments; uncertainty in prediction; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS; NICHE CONSERVATISM; ENVIRONMENTAL NICHE; PLANT-DISTRIBUTION; EXTINCTION RISK; GLOBAL CHANGE; RANGE SHIFTS; STATISTICAL-MODELS; POPULATION-MODELS;
D O I
10.1890/11-1930.1
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
Bioclimatic envelope models use associations between aspects of climate and species' occurrences to estimate the conditions that are suitable to maintain viable populations. Once bioclimatic envelopes are characterized, they can be applied to a variety of questions in ecology, evolution, and conservation. However, some have questioned the usefulness of these models, because they may be based on implausible assumptions or may be contradicted by empirical evidence. We review these areas of contention, and suggest that criticism has often been misplaced, resulting from confusion between what the models actually deliver and what users wish that they would express. Although improvements in data and methods will have some effect, the usefulness of these models is contingent on their appropriate use, and they will improve mainly via better awareness of their conceptual basis, strengths, and limitations.
引用
收藏
页码:1527 / 1539
页数:13
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