Modeling the joint epidemics of TB and HIV in a South African township

被引：70

作者：

Bacaer, Nicolas ^{[1
]}

Ouifki, Rachid ^{[2
]}

Pretorius, Carel ^{[2
]}

Wood, Robin ^{[3
]}

Williams, Brian ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] IRD, F-93143 Bondy, France

[2] Univ Stellenbosch, DST NRF Ctr Excellence Epidemiol Modelling & Anal, SACEMA, ZA-7600 Stellenbosch, South Africa

[3] Univ Cape Town, Inst Infect Dis & Mol Med, Desmond Tutu HIV Ctr, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa

[4] World Hlth Org, Stop TB Dept, Geneva, Switzerland

来源：

JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY | 2008年 / 57卷 / 04期

关键词：

HIV; TB; epidemic model; bifurcation diagram;

D O I：

10.1007/s00285-008-0177-z

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

We present a simple mathematical model with six compartments for the interaction between HIV and TB epidemics. Using data from a township near Cape Town, South Africa, where the prevalence of HIV is above 20% and where the TB notification rate is close to 2,000 per 100,000 per year, we estimate some of the model parameters and study how various control measures might change the course of these epidemics. Condom promotion, increased TB detection and TB preventive therapy have a clear positive effect. The impact of antiretroviral therapy on the incidence of HIV is unclear and depends on the extent to which it reduces sexual transmission. However, our analysis suggests that it will greatly reduce the TB notification rate.

引用

页码：557 / 593

页数：37

共 76 条

[1] Impact of an effective multidrug-resistant tuberculosis control programme in the setting of an immature HIV epidemic: system dynamics simulation model [J].