Note on the discipline/notes sociologiques - The polls and the 1995 Quebec referendum

We perform a meta-analysis of 23 voter polls reported in the news media during the two-month period preceding the 1995 Quebec sovereignty referendum. Contrary to common interpretations of the course of the referendum campaign, we find that there was a smooth and general increase in support for the sovereignty option during this period, and that Lucien Bouchard's dramatic intervention on behalf of the "yes" campaign on October 9 apparently had little effect on voters' stated intentions. The same was true of other putatively consequential events that transpired during the referendum campaign. We conclude that the pre-referendum polls slightly, but systematically, exaggerated the level of support for sovereignty.