Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real?

被引:20
作者
Bukovsky, MS [1 ]
Kain, JS [1 ]
Baldwin, ME [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Oklahoma, CIMMS, Natl Severe Storms Lab, Norman, OK 73069 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1175/WAF908.1
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Bowing, propagating precipitation features that sometimes appear in NCEP's North American Mesoscale model (NAM; formerly called the Eta Model) forecasts are examined. These features are shown to be associated with an unusual convective heating profile generated by the Betts-Miller-Janjic convective parameterization in certain environments. A key component of this profile is a deep layer of cooling in the lower to middle troposphere. This strong cooling tendency induces circulations that favor expansion of parameterized convective activity into nearby grid columns, which can lead to growing, self-perpetuating mesoscale systems under certain conditions. The propagation characteristics of these systems are examined and three contributing mechanisms of propagation are identified. These include a mesoscale downdraft induced by the deep lower-to-middle tropospheric cooling, a convectively induced buoyancy bore, and a boundary layer cold pool that is indirectly produced by the convective scheme in this environment. Each of these mechanisms destabilizes the adjacent atmosphere and decreases convective inhibition in nearby grid columns, promoting new convective development, expansion, and propagation of the larger system. These systems appear to show a poor correspondence with observations of bow echoes on time and space scales that are relevant for regional weather prediction, but they may provide important clues about the propagation mechanisms of real convective systems.
引用
收藏
页码:307 / 324
页数:18
相关论文
共 66 条
  • [1] Baldwin ME, 2002, WEATHER FORECAST, V17, P1063, DOI 10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<1063:POTCSI>2.0.CO
  • [2] 2
  • [3] Bélair S, 2001, MON WEATHER REV, V129, P2362, DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2362:IOHROT>2.0.CO
  • [4] 2
  • [6] BLACK TL, 1994, WEATHER FORECAST, V9, P265, DOI 10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0265:TNNMEM>2.0.CO
  • [7] 2
  • [8] Braun SA, 1996, J ATMOS SCI, V53, P1217, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<1217:THBOAM>2.0.CO
  • [9] 2
  • [10] BRETHERTON CS, 1989, J ATMOS SCI, V46, P740, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<0740:GWCSAD>2.0.CO