The quasistationary distribution of the stochastic logistic model

被引:48
作者
Ovaskainen, O
机构
[1] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England
[2] Univ Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland
关键词
stochastic logistic model; SIS model; time to extinction; quasistationary distribution;
D O I
10.1017/S0021900200019112
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
The stochastic logistic model has been studied in various contexts, including epidemiology, population biology, chemistry and sociology. Among the model predictions, the quasistationary distribution and the mean time to extinction are of major interest for most applications, and a number of approximation formulae for these quantities have been derived. In this paper, previous approximation formulae are improved for two mathematically tractable cases: at the limit of the number of individuals N --> infinity (with relative error of the approximations of the order O(1/N)), and at the limit of the basic reproduction ratio R-0 --> infinity (with relative error of the approximations of the order O(1/R-0)). The mathematically rigorous formulae are then extended heuristically for other values of N and R-0 > 1.
引用
收藏
页码:898 / 907
页数:10
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