Options for differentiation of future commitments in climate policy: how to realise timely participation to meet stringent climate goals?

被引:65
作者
Berk, Marcel M. [1 ]
den Elzen, Michel G. J. [1 ]
机构
[1] Netherlands Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands
关键词
Climate policy; Climate regimes; EU climate target; Differentiation of future commitments; Burden sharing;
D O I
10.3763/cpol.2001.0148
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
This paper aims at exploring options for differentiation of future commitments in global greenhouse gas emissions control, linked to climate targets. This is done on the basis of the EU target of a maximum global temperature increase of 2 degrees C compared to pre-industrial levels. The Framework to Assess International Regimes for the differentiation of commitments (FAIR) is used to explore the implications of two possible climate regimes: (1) increasing participation (i.e. a gradual increase in the number of parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules) and (2) 'contraction and convergence' (C&C) with universal participation and a convergence of per capita emission permits. It is found that in a regime of increasing participation, stabilising the CO(2) concentration at 450 ppmv by 2100 requires participation of major developing countries before 2050 in global emission control, irrespective of the participation and differentiation rules chosen. In the case of stringent climate targets, a convergence regime seems to provide more incentives for a timely participation of developing countries, and opportunities for an effective and efficient regime for controlling global emissions than increasing participation.
引用
收藏
页码:465 / 480
页数:16
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