Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus

被引:215
作者
Jonsson, Anna Maria [1 ]
Appelberg, Gustaf [1 ]
Harding, Susanne [2 ]
Barring, Lars [1 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Lund Univ, Geobiosphere Sci Ctr, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden
[2] Univ Copenhagen, Dept Agr & Ecol, Fac Life Sci, DK-1871 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
[3] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Rossby Ctr, SE-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden
关键词
forest damage; impact modelling; Sweden; temperature; L COL; MODEL PROJECTIONS; SCOLYTIDAE; SIMULATIONS; TEMPERATURE; INFESTATION; CIRCULATION; PHOTOPERIOD; COLEOPTERA; MANAGEMENT;
D O I
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01742.x
中图分类号
X176 [生物多样性保护];
学科分类号
090705 ;
摘要
The spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is one of the major insect pests of mature Norway spruce forests. In this study, a model describing the temperature-dependent thresholds for swarming activity and temperature requirement for development from egg to adult was driven by transient regional climate scenario data for Sweden, covering the period of 1961-2100 for three future climate change scenarios (SRES A2, A1B and B2). During the 20th century, the weather supported the production of one bark beetle generation per year, except in the north-western mountainous parts of Sweden where the climate conditions were too harsh. A warmer climate may sustain a viable population also in the mountainous part; however, the distributional range of I. typographus may be restricted by the migration speed of Norway spruce. Modelling suggests that an earlier timing of spring swarming and fulfilled development of the first generation will significantly increase the frequency of summer swarming. Model calculations suggest that the spruce bark beetle will be able to initiate a second generation in South Sweden during 50% of the years around the mid century. By the end of the century, when temperatures during the bark beetle activity period are projected to have increased by 2.4-3.8 degrees C, a second generation will be initiated in South Sweden in 63-81% of the years. The corresponding figures are 16-33% for Mid Sweden, and 1-6% for North Sweden. During the next decades, one to two generations per year are predicted in response to temperature, and the northern distribution limit for the second generation will vary. Our study addresses questions applicable to sustainable forest management, suggesting that adequate countermeasures require monitoring of regional differences in timing of swarming and development of I. typographus, and planning of control operations during summer periods with large populations of bark beetles.
引用
收藏
页码:486 / 499
页数:14
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