A Role of Zonal Gradient of SST between the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific in Localized Convection around the Philippines

Interannual fluctuations of the convective activity around the Philippines are highly correlated with the east-west gradient of SST between the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and the western North Pacific (WNP). We conducted a set of experiments by use of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to assess the relative importance of the remote (NIO) versus in situ (WNP) SST anomalies in determining the WNP monsoon rainfall as ocean-to-atmosphere feedback. The solutions indicate that both in situ and remote SST anomalies regulate precipitation around the Philippines in the early summer. This result implies that the WNP monsoon rainfall is sensitive to the spatial distribution of the NIO SST anomalies as well as the in situ anomalies. These physical interpretations suggest further increase of the predictability in the WNP monsoon.