Metapopulation dynamics in a regional population of the blue-winged grasshopper (Oedipoda caerulescens; Linnaeus, 1758)

For two consecutive years we registered the presence (or absence) of blue winged grasshoppers (Oedipoda caerulescens; Linnaeus, 1758) on 312 habitat patches of differing size in a region of more than 3000 ha. The data show that presence of grasshoppers on a habitat patch is dependent on patch size as well as on patch isolation. We used an ecological incidence model to describe the metapopulation dynamics of the regional population and derived the parameters for this model from presence-absence data and observations of Oedipoda dispersion. The analysis shows that local extinction of grasshopper populations is influenced by strong fluctuations of environmental conditions and that for a number of small patches in our region recolonization is important for the presence of O. caerulescens. Colonization probability, as derived using the incidence model, is in good agreement with estimates from a population genetical analysis.