Implications of probabilistic data modeling for mining association rules

Mining association rules is an important technique for discovering meaningful patterns in transaction databases. In the current literature, the properties of algorithms to mine association rules are discussed in great detail. We present a simple probabilistic framework for transaction data which can be used to simulate transaction data when no associations are present. We use such data and a real-world grocery database to explore the behavior of confidence and lift, two popular interest measures used for rule mining. The results show that confidence is systematically influenced by the frequency of the items in the left-hand-side of rules and that lift performs poorly to filter random noise in transaction data. The probabilistic data modeling approach presented in this paper not only is a valuable framework to analyze interest measures but also provides a starting point for further research to develop new interest measures which are based on statistical tests and geared towards the specific properties of transaction data.