Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change

被引：77

作者：

Green, Rhys E. ^{[1
,2
]}

Collingham, Yvonne C. ^{[3
]}

Willis, Stephen G. ^{[3
]}

Gregory, Richard D. ^{[2
]}

Smith, Ken W. ^{[2
]}

Huntley, Brian ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Conservat Sci Grp, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England

[2] Royal Soc Protect Birds, Dept Conservat Sci, Sandy SG19 2DL, Beds, England

[3] Univ Durham, Sch Biol & Biomed, Inst Ecosyst Sci, Durham DH1 3LE, England

来源：

BIOLOGY LETTERS | 2008年 / 4卷 / 05期

关键词：

Rare Breeding Birds Panel; climate envelope models; climate response surface models; population trends; climate suitability;

D O I：

10.1098/rsbl.2008.0052

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Twenty-five-year population trends of 42 bird species rare as breeders in the UK were examined in relation to changes in climatic suitability simulated using climatic envelope models. The effects of a series of potential 'nuisance' variables were also assessed. A statistically significant positive correlation was found across species between population trend and climate suitability trend. The demonstration that climate envelope models are able to retrodict species' population trends provides a valuable validation of their use in studies of the potential impacts of future climatic changes.

引用

页码：599 / 602

页数：4

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