Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios

被引:64
作者
Ebi, KL
Hartman, J
Chan, N
McConnell, J
Schlesinger, M
Weyant, J
机构
[1] Exponent Inc, Alexandria, VA 22314 USA
[2] Exponent Inc, Menlo Pk, CA 94025 USA
[3] Oregon Hlth & Sci Univ, Dept Emergency Med, Portland, OR 97239 USA
[4] Univ Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801 USA
[5] Stanford Univ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1007/s10584-005-6875-2
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.
引用
收藏
页码:375 / 393
页数:19
相关论文
共 39 条
[1]  
ALBRITTON DL, 2001, TECHNICAL SUMMARY WO
[2]  
[Anonymous], 2002, World Health Report, 2002: Reducing risks, promoting healthy life
[3]  
*BLAIR RES I, 1996, 1996 ANN REP EP PLAS
[4]  
Breman JG, 2001, AM J TROP MED HYG, V64, P1
[5]   An integrated assessment framework for climate change and infectious diseases [J].
Chan, NY ;
Ebi, KL ;
Smith, F ;
Wilson, TF ;
Smith, AE .
ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES, 1999, 107 (05) :329-337
[6]   A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa [J].
Craig, MH ;
Snow, RW ;
le Sueur, D .
PARASITOLOGY TODAY, 1999, 15 (03) :105-111
[7]   Temperature is predictive of severe malaria years in Zimbabwe [J].
Freeman, T ;
Bradley, M .
TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, 1996, 90 (03) :232-232
[8]  
FREEMAN T, 1995, UNPUB MALARIA ZIMBAB
[9]   The economic burden of malaria [J].
Gallup, JL ;
Sachs, JD .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, 2001, 64 (1-2) :85-96
[10]  
Githeko A. K., 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE HUM HL, V2, P54, DOI [10.1023/A:1011943131643, DOI 10.1023/A:1011943131643]