Assessing chronic and climate-induced water risk through spatially distributed cumulative deficit measures: A new picture of water sustainability in India

India is a poster child for groundwater depletion and chronic water stress. Often, water sustainability is measured through an estimate of the difference between the average supply and demand in a region. However, water supply and demand are highly variable in time and space. Hence, measures of scarcity need to reflect temporal imbalances even for a fixed location. We introduce spatially distributed indices of water stress that integrate over time variations in water supply and demand. The indices reflect the maximum cumulative deficit in a regional water balance within year and across years. This can be interpreted as the amount that needs to be drawn from external storage (either aquifers or surface reservoirs or interarea transfers) to meet the current demand pattern given a variable climate and renewable water supply. A simulation over a long period of record (historical or projected) provides the ability to quantify risk. We present an application at a district level in India considering more than a 100 year data set of rainfall as the renewable supply, and the recent water use pattern for each district. Consumption data are available through surveys at the district level, and consequently, we use this rather than river basins as the unit of analysis. The rainfall endogenous to each district is used as a potentially renewable water supply to reflect the supply-demand imbalances directly at the district level, independent of potential transfers due to upstream-induced runoff or canals. The index is useful for indicating whether small or large surface storage will suffice, or whether the extent of groundwater storage or external transfers, or changes in demand are needed to achieve a sustainable solution. Implications of the analysis for India and for other applications are discussed.