Microphysical modeling of southern polar dehydration during the 1998 winter and comparison with POAM III observations

Stratospheric dehydration and high aerosol extinctions are examined for the 1998 Antarctic winter using the Integrated Microphysics and Aerosol Chemistry on Trajectories (IMPACT) model and data obtained by the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. The model is applied to individual air parcels which are advected along 3-D trajectories using the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) global wind and temperature fields. Model results are compared to water vapor and aerosol extinction measurements obtained with the POAM instrument. Results suggest that the water vapor mixing ratio at the end of the season is predicted with reasonable accuracy. However, dehydration occurs more rapidly in the simulation than is indicated by the POAM data. In addition to dehydration results, the frequency of high aerosol extinction measurements is examined for all model runs and compared to POAM data. The aerosol extinction comparisons are consistent with the assumption that heterogeneous nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) freezing occurs in approximately 1% of all particles. Various model parameters influencing ice cloud microphysics are altered to examine their effects on both the water vapor mixing ratio and high aerosol extinction events. While a reduction in the ice accommodation coefficient and an increase in the ice nucleation barrier both improve the agreement in the water vapor mixing ratio, the agreement in aerosol extinction is worsened. Extinction comparisons suggest that the model results are consistent with either high or low NAT-ice lattice compatibility factors, although intermediate values agree poorly with POAM data. The extent of dehydration is highly dependent on temperature; therefore, an uncertainty as small as +/- 1 K in the UKMO temperature fields may significantly change the model results.