Power system operation risk assessment using credibility theory

被引：57

作者：

Feng, Yongqing ^{[1
]}

Wu, Wenchuan ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Boming ^{[1
]}

Li, Wenyuan ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Elect Engn, State Key Lab Power Syst, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China

[2] British Columbia Transmiss Corp, Vancouver, BC V7X 1V5, Canada

[3] Chongqing Univ, Chongqing 630044, Peoples R China

来源：

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS | 2008年 / 23卷 / 03期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

credibility theory; operation risk; power systems; security assessment;

D O I：

10.1109/TPWRS.2008.922616

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 ; 0809 ;

摘要：

Failure probability of system components may vary with the changes of weather, environment and other operation conditions. The time-varying or condition-based failure probability can be represented using a fuzzy model. Based on credibility theory, this paper presents a novel operation risk assessment method to handle the two-fold uncertainty combining randomness and fuzziness in power system operations. In the proposed method, a random fuzzy model is developed to accommodate impacts due to various operation conditions and other factors on the failure probability of system components. the WECC nine-bus system, IEEE 14-bus system and an actual power system in Northeast China were used to demonstrate feasibility and applicability of the presented method. The operation risk assessment module using the proposed method has been embedded in the EMS system in a district control center of a power company to perform real-time operation risk assessment.

引用

页码：1309 / 1318

页数：10

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