Using El Nino - Southern oscillation climate data to improve food policy planning in Indonesia

被引：32

作者：

Naylor, R ^{[1
]}

Falcon, W ^{[1
]}

Wada, N ^{[1
]}

Rochberg, D ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Stanford Univ, Inst Int Studies, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

来源：

BULLETIN OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES | 2002年 / 38卷 / 01期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1080/000749102753620293

中图分类号：

K9 [地理];

学科分类号：

0705 ;

摘要：

Despite the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (Wet) Season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Nino years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Nino years than La Nina years. Indonesia's paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every VC change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations.

引用

页码：75 / 91

页数：17

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