EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2012 FROM A CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE

被引：358

作者：

Peterson, Thomas C. ^{[1
]}

Alexander, Lisa V. ^{[2
,3
]}

Allen, Myles R. ^{[4
,5
]}

Anel, Juan A. ^{[6
,7
]}

Barriopedro, David ^{[8
,9
]}

Black, Mitchell T. ^{[10
,11
]}

Carey-Smith, Trevor ^{[12
]}

Castillo, Rodrigo ^{[7
]}

Cattiaux, Julien ^{[13
]}

Chen, Xiaolong ^{[14
]}

Chen, Xianyan ^{[15
]}

Chevallier, Matthieu ^{[16
,17
,18
]}

Christidis, Nikolaos ^{[19
]}

Ciavarella, Andrew ^{[19
]}

de Vries, Hylke ^{[20
]}

Dean, Sam M. ^{[12
]}

Deans, Kirsten ^{[21
]}

Diffenbaugh, Noah S. ^{[22
,23
]}

Doblas-Reyes, Francisco ^{[24
,25
]}

Donat, Markus G. ^{[2
,3
]}

Dong, Buwen ^{[26
]}

Eilerts, Gary ^{[27
]}

Funk, Chris ^{[28
,29
]}

Galu, Gideon ^{[30
]}

Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo ^{[8
,9
]}

Germe, Agathe ^{[16
,17
]}

Gill, Stephen ^{[31
]}

Gimeno, Luis ^{[7
]}

Guemas, Virginie ^{[16
,17
,24
]}

Herring, Stephanie C. ^{[32
]}

Hoell, Andrew ^{[28
]}

Hoerling, Martin P. ^{[33
]}

Huntingford, Chris ^{[34
]}

Husak, Greg ^{[28
]}

Imada, Yukiko ^{[35
]}

Ishii, Masayoshi ^{[36
]}

Karoly, David J. ^{[10
,11
]}

Kimoto, Masahide ^{[35
]}

King, Andrew D. ^{[2
,3
]}

Knutson, Thomas R. ^{[37
]}

Lewis, Sophie C. ^{[10
,11
]}

Lin, Renping ^{[14
]}

Lyon, Bradfield ^{[38
]}

Massey, Neil ^{[5
,6
]}

Mazza, Edoardo ^{[21
]}

Michaelsen, Joel ^{[28
]}

Mollard, James ^{[21
,46
]}

Mori, Masato ^{[35
]}

Mote, Philip W. ^{[39
]}

Nieto, Raquel ^{[7
]}

机构：

[1] NOAA Natl Climat Data Ctr, Asheville, NC 28801 USA

[2] Univ New S Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[3] Univ New S Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[4] Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England

[5] Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England

[6] Univ Oxford, Smith Sch Enterprise & Environm, Oxford, England

[7] Univ Vigo, Fac Sci, EPhysLab, Orense, Spain

[8] Univ Complutense, Fac Fis, Dto Fis Tierra 2, Madrid, Spain

[9] IGEO CSIC UCM, Inst Geociencias, Madrid, Spain

[10] Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[11] Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[12] Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand

[13] UMR CNRS Meteo France, CNRM GAME, Toulouse, France

[14] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China

[15] China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China

[16] Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, Grp Etude Atmosphere Meteorol, Meteo, France

[17] CNRS, UMR3589, Toulouse, France

[18] MERCATOR OCEAN, Toulouse, France

[19] Met Office Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[20] KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands

[21] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland

[22] Stanford Univ, Dept Environm Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA USA

[23] Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA USA

[24] Inst Catala Ciencies Clima, Barcelona, Spain

[25] Inst Catalana Rec & Estudis Avancats, Barcelona, Spain

[26] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England

[27] USAID, Washington, DC USA

[28] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Grp, Santa Barbara, CA USA

[29] US Geol Survey, Earth Resources Observat & Sci Ctr, Sioux Falls, SD USA

[30] FEWS NET, Climate Hazards Grp, Nairobi, Kenya

[31] NOAA Natl Ocean Serv NOS, Ctr Operat Oceanog Prod & Serv COOPS, Silver Spring, MD USA

[32] NOAA Natl Climat Data Ctr, Boulder, CO USA

[33] NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA

[34] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England

[35] Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Chiba, Japan

[36] Japan Meteorol Agcy, Meteorol Res Inst, Ibaraki, Osaka, Japan

[37] Natl Ocean & Atmospher Adm, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA

[38] Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, Palisades, NY USA

[39] Oregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Oregon Climate Change Res Inst, Corvallis, OR USA

[40] Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England

[41] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

[42] Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, IDL, Lisbon, Portugal

[43] US Geol Survey, Earth Resources Observat & Sci Ctr, Boulder, CO USA

[44] CEA CNRS UVSQ, UMR 8212, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France

[45] IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France

[46] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 2AH, Berks, England

来源：

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2013年 / 94卷 / 09期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; HURRICANE SURGE THREAT; SOIL-MOISTURE; UNITED-STATES; HEAT WAVES; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY; HEMISPHERE WINTER; EUROPEAN CLIMATE; LEVEL RISE;

D O I：

10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that is currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite different methodologies, of 12 extreme events that occurred in 2012. In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events, the high temperatures in the United States, the record low levels of Arctic sea ice, and the heavy rain in northern Europe and eastern Australia, provide an opportunity to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies. The differences also provide insights into the structural uncertainty of event attribution, that is, the uncertainty that arises directly from the differences in analysis methodology. In these cases, there was considerable agreement between the different assessments of the same event. However, different events had very different causes. Approximately half the analyses found some evidence that anthropogenically caused climate change was a contributing factor to the extreme event examined, though the effects of natural fluctuations of weather and climate on the evolution of many of the extreme events played key roles as well.

引用

页码：S1 / S74

页数：74

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