Population aging and endogenous economic growth

被引:165
作者
Prettner, Klaus [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Harvard Univ, Ctr Populat & Dev Studies, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[2] Univ Gottingen, Inst Int Econ, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany
关键词
Demographic change; Technological progress; Long-run economic growth; MORTALITY DECLINE; MODEL; FERTILITY; DEBT; TAXATION;
D O I
10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9
中图分类号
C921 [人口统计学];
学科分类号
摘要
We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.
引用
收藏
页码:811 / 834
页数:24
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