Structural opportunity and perceived opportunity in social-movement theory: The Iranian Revolution of 1979

Tocquevillean analyses of social movements are limited to cases in which structural opportunities (the vulnerability of the state to popular political pressure) coincide with perceived opportunities (the public's awareness of opportunities for successful protest activity). This alignment may not always occur, however I examine the implications of a mismatch between structural opportunities and perceived opportunities using participant and eyewitness accounts of the Iranian revolutionary movement of 1977 through 1979. By several objective measures, the monarchy was nor structurally vulnerable. Yet Iranians appear to have perceived opportunities for successful protest, basing their perceptions on a shift in the opposition movement, not on a shift in the structural position of the state. In the conflict between structural conditions and perceived opportunities, the structural conditions gave way. Only by examining cases in which structural opportunities and perceived opportunities are out of balance can the relative effect of each be determined.