A fuzzy logic model to describe the cyanobacteria Nodularia spumigena blooms in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

A fuzzy logic model to describe the seasonal evolution of Nodularia spumigena blooms in the Gulf of Finland was built and calibrated on the basis of monitoring data. The model includes three phosphate sources: excess phosphate after the annual spring bloom and parameterised phosphate transport to the upper mixed layer by turbulent mixing and upwelling events. Surface layer temperature and wind mixing form the physical conditions controlling the growth of N. spumigena. Model simulations revealed that phosphate input caused by turbulent mixing and upwelling have to be taken into account to achieve the best fit with observed data. Testing the fuzzy model for early prediction of maximum N. spumigena biomass about a month before the usual occurrence of blooms, gave good results. The potential use of the model for prediction of bloom risk at a certain location along the Estonian or Finnish coast was tested. The bloom transport velocities used in the fuzzy model were pre-calculated by a 3D numerical circulation model for different wind regimes.