Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets

被引：107

作者：

Manski, CF

机构：

[1] Northwestern Univ, Dept Econ, Evanston, IL 60208 USA

[2] Northwestern Univ, Inst Policy Res, Evanston, IL 60208 USA

来源：

ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2006年 / 91卷 / 03期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

beliefs; efficient markets hypothesis; futures markets; prediction markets; subjective probabilities;

D O I：

10.1016/j.econlet.2006.01.004

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Prediction markets are futures markets in which prices are used to predict future events. I present the first formal analysis of price determination supposing traders have heterogeneous beliefs, deriving the equilibrium when traders are risk-neutral price takers. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：425 / 429

页数：5