PV morphology of a frontal-wave development

A case study is performed of a frontal-wave development on a trailing cold front in the Atlantic. The data base comprises principally the analysis and forecast fields of the global operational weather prediction model of the ECMWF, and the development itself is viewed from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective. It is shown that the ambient atmosphere contained three distinct and salient PV features: at the surface a frontal baroclinic zone; in the lower troposphere a co-aligned, moisture laden, elongated band (similar to 2000 km long and similar to 400 km wide) of enhanced PV; and at upper-levels a richly structured, southward extending PV pool. In the development's first phase a large-scale undulation of the surface frontal zone was accompanied by an in-phase movement of the upper-level anomaly. In a second phase two low-level wave features developed around 1000 km apart, and the resulting wave depressions were accompanied by a distortion of the baroclinic zone and the break-up of the low-level PV-band. In the subsequent mature phase the dominant secondary cyclone attained similar to 500 km scale in the horizontal and acquired a coherent PV structure in the vertical. A PV-based diagnostic analysis provides evidence of both the self development of the PV features and their synergetic interplay. It also forms the basis for a comparison of the event with traditional and recent hypotheses for frontal-wave development. On the basis of the diagnosed relationship between the customarily depicted surface frontal-wave cups and the low-level PV-band, it is suggested that the segmentation of the latter provides a useful tool for monitoring and forecasting secondary developments. Also in the context of numerical weather prediction brief consideration is given to the sensivity of the frontal-wave development and structure to the spatial resolution of the associated forecast model and the specification of the initial fields.