A prospective cohort study of cigarette smoking and pancreatic cancer in Japan

Objective: To examine the association of cigarette smoking with the risk of death from pancreatic cancer in a prospective cohort study. Methods: A total of 110,792 inhabitants, aged 40-79 years (46,465 men and 64,327 women), were enrolled from 1988 to 1990 and followed up for mortality to the end of 1997. At baseline a self-administered questionnaire was used to obtain information on cigarette smoking and other lifestyle factors. Results: During the follow-up period (mean +/- SD: 8.1 +/- 1.8 years), 225 deaths due to pancreatic cancer were identified. After adjustment for age, body mass index, history of diabetes mellitus, and gallbladder diseases, the relative risks (RRs) for current smokers were 1.6 (95% CI 0.95-2.6) in males, and 1.7 (95% CI: 0.84-3.3) in females. Men who smoked more than 40 cigarettes per day had a substantially higher risk of pancreatic cancer, with a RR of 3.3 (95% CI: 1.4-8.1). A significantly decreasing trend in risk with increasing years after smoking cessation was observed (trend p = 0.04) among male ex-smokers. The RRs were 0.85 (95% CI 0.36-2.0) and 0.85 (0.36-2.0) for those who had quit smoking for 10-19 and greater than or equal to20 years, respectively. Conclusions: Our cohort study confirmed that cigarette smoking was associated with an increased risk of death from pancreatic cancer.