Policy and global change research - A modest proposal

The history of the U.S. Global Change Research Program calls into question its sustainability. The Program was established on the presumption that a prerequisite for rational, comprehensive, and cost-effective policy responses is the reduction of scientific uncertainty through comprehensive predictive models. This presumption remains a significant barrier to the renewal of public support for the Program through near-term progress consistent with its mandate 'to produce information readily usable by policymakers'. This article critiques the use of comprehensive predictive models for policy purposes; proposes one modest alternative to comprehensive predictive models as a means of integrating scientific and non-scientific considerations into recommendations readily usable by policymakers; and places the issue In the broader context of a paradigm shift in U.S. science and technology policy, The purpose is to expedite progress, consistent with the policy mandate, that would help sustain public support for the Program.