A new model that generates Lotka's Law

被引:27
作者
Huber, JC [1 ]
机构
[1] Inst Invent & Innovat, Austin, TX 78752 USA
来源
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY | 2002年 / 53卷 / 03期
关键词
D O I
10.1002/asi.10025
中图分类号
TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号
0812 ;
摘要
In this paper, we develop a new model for a process that generates Lotka's Law. We show that four relatively mild assumptions create a process that fits five different informetric distributions: rate of production, career duration, randomness, and Poisson distribution overtime, as well as Lotka's Law. By simulation, we obtain good fits to three empirical samples that exhibit the extreme range of the observed parameters. The overall error is 7% or less. An advantage of this model is that the parameters can be linked to observable human factors. That is, the model is not merely descriptive, but also provides insight into the causes of differences between samples. Furthermore, the differences can be tested with powerful statistical tools.
引用
收藏
页码:209 / 219
页数:11
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